KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-09 12:15Core Viewpoint - The consumption atmosphere is gradually warming up as the year-end approaches, with the "Double 11" shopping festival expected to be a competitive period, leading to a recovery in demand for high-end liquor, particularly for Feitian Moutai, which is seen as a market bellwether [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market for Feitian Moutai has shown a stable price trend across various regions, with slight regional price differences but overall stability reflecting a good cycle of demand recovery and sales [2][6]. - As of November 8, 2023, the price for 2025 Feitian Moutai in Tianjin is 1875 CNY per bottle for original packaging and 1820 CNY for loose bottles, while in Hubei, the prices are 1865 CNY and 1820 CNY respectively [2][3]. - In Jiangxi, the prices for 2025 Feitian Moutai are 1860 CNY for original packaging and 1820 CNY for loose bottles, indicating a consistent pricing strategy across the southern and northern markets [2][4]. Group 2: Sales Dynamics - Feedback from distributors indicates a smooth sales flow since October, with some reporting a year-on-year sales increase of 45%, driven by rising consumer demand during the "Double 11" promotional period [5][6]. - Consumers are returning to rational purchasing behaviors, focusing on needs rather than stockpiling, which has led to frequent purchases and a tight inventory situation in stores [6]. Group 3: Company Strategy and Market Position - Guizhou Moutai's management confirmed strong sales performance during a recent earnings call, noting a strategic reduction in supply from June to August to maintain market stability, which has resulted in a noticeable recovery in sales since August [7]. - The company reported a 7.26% year-on-year revenue increase for the third quarter, with a focus on maintaining a stable market presence and respecting market dynamics [7]. - International capital confidence in Moutai's long-term value is growing, as evidenced by the presence of 85 foreign institutional investors holding shares, with a market capitalization of 881.42 billion CNY [7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is returning to rational growth amidst various challenges, with price stabilization seen as a natural outcome in the long run [8]. - Moutai is actively building a positive cycle among enterprises, markets, and capital, which not only strengthens its foundation but also enhances the overall industry development [8].