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DLS MARKETS:美银发布鹰派预测,美联储降息或需等待至2026年

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates again before the end of Chairman Powell's term in May 2026, contrasting with market expectations for a rate cut in December [2] - The delay in the release of key economic data, such as the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to the government shutdown, complicates decision-making for the Federal Reserve [3] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials reflect a more cautious approach, with a consensus that inflation has not fully returned to target levels, requiring clearer evidence for policy easing [4] Group 2 - The latest financial stability report from the Federal Reserve highlights rising concerns over "policy uncertainty" as a major risk factor, alongside high asset valuations and elevated leverage among some financial institutions [5] - The risk survey indicates that market sentiment regarding artificial intelligence-related fluctuations has gained attention, suggesting emerging technologies may impact asset price volatility [6] Group 3 - The U.S. market liquidity is under pressure due to increased Treasury bond issuance and a significant rise in the Treasury's general account balance, leading to tighter available liquidity and fluctuations in short-term interest rates [7] - Analysts warn that if liquidity pressures persist, there could be a risk of chain reactions in the short-term funding markets similar to past volatility periods [7]