价格创年内新高，下一个金属之王来了？

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing significant price increases due to limited production capacity and rising demand from sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Constraints - China is the largest producer of primary aluminum, with production capacity nearing its limit, estimated at around 4,584 million tons as of October 2025 [5]. - The Chinese government has set a production cap of approximately 4,500 million tons per year for electrolytic aluminum, restricting new capacity additions [4][5]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the Chinese electrolytic aluminum sector is around 97%-98%, indicating limited room for expansion [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average cash price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose to approximately $2,859 per ton in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [3]. - Domestic aluminum prices in China have increased by approximately 11% compared to the same period in 2024, although they remain below the peak levels of 24,000 yuan per ton seen in 2021 and 2022 [3][5]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The demand for electrolytic aluminum has been significantly boosted by the growth in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with new energy installations reaching high levels [9][10]. - In the first nine months of 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached approximately 11.24 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of around 35% [10]. - The rapid development of energy storage solutions is also contributing to increased aluminum demand, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 7,376 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The aluminum industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with limited new capacity additions expected in the coming years, leading to a predictable upward price trend [13]. - The transition to green energy and stricter environmental regulations in regions like the EU are increasing production costs for aluminum, further impacting supply [7]. - The ongoing competition for electricity from emerging sectors, such as AI, is driving up marginal electricity prices, which are critical for aluminum production [6].