增程车“失宠”

Core Insights - The range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) market has experienced a rare "three consecutive declines" in monthly sales, with July, August, and September sales at 106,900 units, 97,400 units, and 105,000 units respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 11%, 7%, and 13% [1][3] - Ideal Automotive, once a leader in the REEV market, has seen a significant drop in sales for five consecutive months, raising questions about whether this decline is a temporary market fluctuation or indicative of a ceiling for this technology path [1][3] - The REEV market, which saw explosive growth from 2021 to 2024 with sales increases of 218%, 130%, 154%, and 70.9%, and market share rising from 3.6% to 9.1%, is now facing challenges as the core advantages of REEVs are being undermined by advancements in pure electric vehicles (EVs) [1][3][5] Market Dynamics - The REEV market has expanded significantly, with total sales expected to exceed one million units by 2024 and the number of brands reaching 23 [3] - However, the landscape is changing as Ideal Automotive shifts focus towards pure electric vehicles, while competitors like Wuling, Deep Blue, and others continue to enter the REEV space [3][4] - The core reasons for the decline in REEV popularity include significant improvements in pure EV range, enhanced charging infrastructure, and decreasing battery costs [5][8] Technological Shifts - The average range of new pure EVs has increased to over 500 km, with mainstream models exceeding 600-700 km, closely matching traditional fuel vehicles [5][8] - Charging infrastructure has improved dramatically, with a total of 12.8175 million charging stations in China by the end of 2024, a 49.11% year-on-year increase [8] - Battery costs are projected to drop to $99 per kWh by 2025, making EVs more cost-competitive with fuel vehicles [8][9] Future Considerations - The new generation of REEVs is shifting towards "large battery + small fuel tank" configurations, raising questions about the necessity of the range-extending engine when pure electric range is comparable to that of pure EVs [9][12] - Industry opinions are divided on whether this shift represents progress or a deviation from the original efficiency goals of REEV technology [12][14] - The decline in REEV popularity highlights the transient nature of market advantages and the importance of addressing consumer pain points [15][16]