Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-11 04:03Core Viewpoint - Despite the U.S. federal government shutdown causing significant delays in the release of key economic data, Morgan Stanley's latest analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve may still have sufficient grounds to implement interest rate cuts at the December monetary policy meeting [1] Economic Data Delays - The September non-farm payroll data is expected to be released within three working days after the government shutdown ends, while most other monthly economic indicators may take one to two weeks to resume publication [1] - The delay in the release of October economic data is likely to extend further, potentially preventing a complete presentation before the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists believe that despite the "data vacuum" challenge, existing signs of economic slowdown and some available limited information provide a reasonable basis for the Federal Reserve to continue pursuing an accommodative policy [1] - This assessment supports market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in December [1] Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with some officials emphasizing the need for clearer signals of inflation decline [1] - Institutions, including Morgan Stanley, argue that even with data delays, the trend of weakening economic momentum is significant enough to warrant further policy adjustments [1]