Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has slightly adjusted the profit forecast for Lao Pu Gold (06181) for 2025 down by 2-3%, while maintaining the profit expectations for 2026-2027 unchanged. The target price is set at HKD 1296, reaffirming a "outperform" rating, positioning the stock as one of the top picks in the domestic consumption sector [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to continue its growth momentum, driven by brand value, product innovation, and a strong value proposition in a market that emphasizes national pride [1] - The new value-added tax (VAT) policy for gold jewelry, effective from November 1, is anticipated to increase raw material costs by approximately 6%, exerting a pressure of 3-4 percentage points on the company's gross margin [1] - Management believes that the actual impact on gross margin may be limited due to inventory reserves and price adjustment mechanisms [1] Group 2 - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, supported by a solid growth foundation, including an increase in average selling prices and new store expansions [1]
小摩：老铺黄金指新黄金首饰增值税影响或有限 重申“跑赢大市”评级