Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-12 01:12Core Insights - The U.S. government is expected to end its record shutdown, but investors face deteriorating labor data, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential decline in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the first negative growth in nearly three years [1][2] Group 1: Government Shutdown and Data Collection - The Senate passed a bill to end the government shutdown, allowing key economic data to be released soon [1] - The Labor Department faces unprecedented challenges due to interrupted data collection during the shutdown, leading to potential permanent loss of some October data [2] Group 2: Labor Market Indicators - Private sector indicators show a sharp deterioration in the labor market, with announced layoffs in October reaching 153,000, nearly three times the number from the previous year and the highest for the month since 2003 [3][6] - Average weekly job losses in the private sector were 11,250 in the last four weeks of October, indicating struggles in job creation [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its employment growth tracking indicator for October down to 50,000, a significant decrease from 85,000 in September [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The interruption of data and the bleak labor market outlook place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding interest rate decisions [15] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20%-25% chance of a significant rise in the unemployment rate over the next six months, up from 10% six months ago [15][19] - The chaotic data release situation and negative private indicators complicate the risk assessment for investors, suggesting increased market volatility in the coming weeks [19]