Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-11-12 01:19Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased after two consecutive reductions, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [3][4]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the past ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [4]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [4]. Impact on Consumers - The price increase will result in additional costs for consumers, with private car owners expected to pay approximately 5 yuan more for a full tank of 50 liters, and logistics companies facing an increase of about 177 yuan for heavy trucks over a month [5]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by OPEC+ decisions to increase production and concerns over supply surplus [6][7]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising oil inventories have further pressured oil prices, with forecasts suggesting a decline in Brent crude prices to an average of 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and 52 USD in 2026 [7]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of a price decrease in the next domestic fuel price adjustment due to ongoing supply pressures and weak global demand [8]. - The upcoming pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate, potentially leading to a reduction of around 60 yuan per ton [8][9].