Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-12 01:52Core Insights - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock of the U.S. government shutdown to the release of delayed economic data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1][5]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][2]. - Key data releases are projected as follows: - September Employment Report: November 19, 2025 [3][4]. - September Retail Sales and PPI: November 26, 2025 [3][4]. - Q3 GDP: December 5, 2025 [3][4]. - October Employment Report: December 8, 2025 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's December Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to have access to critical data, including September employment, inflation (PCE), and retail sales, before its meeting on December 9-10 [5]. - Despite data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. Asymmetric Risks for Investors - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, particularly if strong economic data challenges the prevailing narrative of rate cuts [7]. - If employment data unexpectedly improves, it may force a reevaluation of the Fed's interest rate path, potentially leading to market adjustments [7].