股价接近高点：腾讯不当“中国版巴菲特”

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to rebound significantly by 2025, with its stock price nearing 2021 highs, but there remains a cautious sentiment due to past regulatory challenges and business transformations [1][3]. Group 1: Business Strategy and Adjustments - Since 2018, Tencent has shifted focus from extensive investments to core business operations, a trend that is expected to become clearer in 2024 [3][10]. - Tencent's investment strategy has evolved, with a reduced emphasis on external investments and a stronger focus on enhancing operational efficiency and core business growth [4][11]. - The company has experienced a decline in capital expenditure as a percentage of pre-tax profits since 2010, despite maintaining a high return on invested capital (ROIC) above 30% [6][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - Tencent's capital expenditures have rebounded, with pre-tax profits reaching 241.5 billion yuan in 2024, and cash dividends totaling 38 billion yuan, indicating a strong financial position [10][11]. - The recent volatility in the capital markets is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown, which has restricted liquidity, but this situation is expected to improve by mid-November [13][15][18]. - The market is optimistic about Tencent's ability to reignite growth in its core business, particularly in AI and other emerging sectors, as it continues to adjust its capital allocation strategy [11][12].