Piotech (SH:688072) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-12 08:58Core Viewpoint - Hengyunchang is facing significant challenges as it prepares for its IPO on the STAR Market, with over 60% of its revenue dependent on a single major client, Tuojing Technology, and an expected decline in net profit by 21%-30% in 2025, raising concerns about its "parasitic" growth model [1][2]. Revenue Dependency - The concentration of revenue from Tuojing Technology has increased from 45.23% in 2022 to 63.13% in 2025, with 62.06% in the first half of 2025, indicating a fragile business model vulnerable to market fluctuations [2][3]. - Tuojing Technology not only serves as the largest client but also holds 3.42% of Hengyunchang's shares, leading to regulatory scrutiny regarding the stability and sustainability of their partnership [2][3]. Financial Performance Volatility - Despite a remarkable revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 84.91% from 2022 to 2024, Hengyunchang's net profit is projected to decline in 2025, with a decrease in orders from 2.60 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 844 million yuan by September 2025 [3][4]. - An unusual spike in revenue in June 2025 raised questions about potential revenue recognition issues, as the monthly income reached 80.40 million yuan, accounting for 26.44% of the first half's revenue [3][4]. Accounts Receivable Growth - Hengyunchang's accounts receivable surged from 19.97 million yuan in 2022 to 130 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a CAGR of 82.26%, indicating significant cash flow pressures [4][5]. - The company's credit policy change for Tuojing Technology from "30 days" to "60 days" has led to a decline in accounts receivable turnover from 8.89 in 2022 to 6.19 in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. Industry Challenges - The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry poses systemic risks, with a decline in equipment shipments beginning in Q4 2024, reflected in Hengyunchang's revenue drop from 143 million yuan in Q1 2024 to 115 million yuan in Q4 2024 [5][6]. - In the third quarter of 2025, revenue fell by 27.29% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 46.16%, exacerbated by a high capacity utilization rate of over 100% [5][6]. Cash Flow and Fundraising Concerns - Hengyunchang plans to raise 1.55 billion yuan in its IPO, with 169 million yuan earmarked for working capital, despite having 400 million yuan in cash and 341 million yuan in financial assets as of mid-2025 [6][7]. - The company's projected revenue growth of 60% for 2026 and 2027 contrasts sharply with the anticipated revenue decline in 2025, raising questions about the necessity of the fundraising [6][7]. Technological and Market Competition - Hengyunchang holds a 6.1% market share in China's semiconductor plasma RF power supply sector, but faces intense competition from established global players and increasing domestic rivals [7][8]. - The company's R&D expenditure reached 43.31 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 14.24% of revenue, but this heavy investment may further squeeze profit margins amid declining performance [7][8].