摘要 存储需求预计 2026 年超供，2025 年 9 月现货价已大幅上涨，四季度 合约价涨幅预期上修，行业维持供不应求状态，2026 年 Q1 合约价预计 持续超预期，CSP 服务器存储器需求增速预计至少 30%。 存储行业大缺货背景下，长鑫存储和长江存储等国内企业扩产有望超预 期，逻辑先进制程扩产亦将受益，设备厂商如拓荆科技将受益于扩产带 来的额外订单，国产化率提升带来相应收益。 半导体设备指数今年以来增长显著，拓荆科技和微导纳米涨幅居前。9 月初以来，存储涨价催化及产品上市预期强化，相关公司股价进一步上 涨，预计长鑫和长江 2026 年扩产量约为 10-11 万片。 存储设备板块未来几年有望保持较高增速，订单确定性较高，对营收和 利润预测准确性提升。北方华创等公司 PE 较低，有望通过 EPS 增长推 动市值上升，年初设备板块胜率较高。 晶合集成主业稳健，各领域处于满载状态。CBA 和 CFA 技术发展有望 推动 DRAM 阵列与 CMOS 外围电路分离制造，产生外包需求，为晶合 集成等公司带来巨大机会，如 28 纳米节点代工可带来显著营收增量。 Q&A 2025 年存储行业的市场表现和未来预期如何？ ...

拓荆科技股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议资料 证券代码：688072 证券简称：拓荆科技 拓荆科技股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议资料 2025 年 12 月 拓荆科技股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议资料 拓荆科技股份有限公司 拓荆科技股份有限公司 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议资料 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议须知 目 录 为维护全体股东的合法权利，确保股东会的正常秩序和议事效率，保证股东 会的顺利进行，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上 市公司股东会规则》以及《拓荆科技股份有限公司章程》《拓荆科技股份有限公 司股东会议事规则》等相关规定，拓荆科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）特 制定 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议须知： | 拓荆科技股份有限公司 | 年第五次临时股东会会议须知 1 2025 | | --- | --- | | 拓荆科技股份有限公司 | 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议议程 3 | | 拓荆科技股份有限公司 | 2025 年第五次临时股东会会议议案 5 | | 议案一：关于公司与关联方共同投资暨关联交易的议案 5 | ...

海外科技巨头业绩不及预期，美股率先调整 开源证券近日发布电子行业周报：本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）电子行业指数涨1.36%，其中半导体领 涨3.30%。光学光电子跌1.23%，消费电子跌1.39%；海外科技方面，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦 基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。但由于甲骨文以及博通业绩会交流不及预期，海 外科技大幅下跌，费城半导体下跌3.58%、英伟达跌4.05%、博通跌7.77%、特斯拉涨0.87%、Meta跌 4.33%、苹果跌0.18%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 合肥长鑫今年7月已经开始辅导。我们预计明年长鑫长存扩产将会有较高的同比增速，叠加先进逻辑厂 商的持续扩产，建议关注半导体设备的投资机会。 本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）电子行业指数涨1.36%，其中半导体领涨3.30%。光学光电子跌1.23%，消 费电子跌1.39%；海外科技方面，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。但由于甲骨文以及博通业绩会交流不及预期，海外科技大幅下跌，费城 半导体下跌3.58%、英伟达跌4. ...

这波暴涨绝非偶然，AI算力爆发、存储周期上行、国产替代提速的"三重buff"叠加，作为芯片产业的"卖铲人"，半导体设备行业正站在业绩兑现的风口 上。 回头看此前的板块波动，本质是短期情绪与长期逻辑的"短暂错位"：晶圆厂阶段性备货调整、海外制裁担忧等扰动已逐步消退，而全球半导体复苏、国内 扩产提速的核心逻辑愈发清晰，资金自然重新回流这一高确定性赛道。 本周五A股反弹行情中，半导体设备板块的表现备受关注，拓荆科技、中科飞测等个股盘中涨超10%，板块指数大涨3.26%逼近前高，资金抢筹迹象十分 明显。 海内外共振，设备市场升温 首先，全球半导体行业正进入复苏快车道。根据WSTS（世界半导体行业协会）数据，2025年上半年全球半导体市场规模达到3460亿美元，同比增长 18.9%，全年预计还要涨15.4%，直奔7280亿美元。 技术升级更让设备需求"量价齐升"。3D NAND堆叠层数向5xx层甚至1000层突破，对高深宽比刻蚀、先进薄膜沉积的要求大幅提升，泛林半导体测算， NAND堆叠层数从1yy层提升至5xx层，相关设备市场规模将增长1.8倍。 国内市场更是"双线发力"，一边扩产提速，一边国产替代加速。长鑫存储已经 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Viewpoints - The storage sector is crucial for AI inference, driving rapid growth in storage demand, particularly for HBM, DRAM, and SSD, characterized by decreasing costs and increasing capacities [5][13]. - AI-driven storage demand is expected to surge, with projections indicating a need for hundreds of exabytes (EB) of storage capacity in the near future [5][24]. - The report emphasizes the broad space within the industry chain, highlighting opportunities in eSSD, MRDIMM, SPD, and VPD chips, as well as CXL storage pooling [5][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Storage as Tokens for AI Inference - AI servers utilize various storage types, including HBM, DRAM, and SSD, with a focus on high bandwidth and large capacity to support efficient data processing [13][17]. - The demand for SSD and HDD is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a requirement of 49 EB for ten Google-level inference applications by 2026 [24]. 2. AI-Driven Storage Demand Growth - eSSD is identified as a core demand area for AI and storage servers, with increasing needs for high bandwidth and large capacity due to long-context inference and RAG databases [25][26]. - The market for AI server eSSD is expected to expand, with theoretical maximum capacities of 59 EB, 89 EB, and 120 EB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [27][34]. 3. MRDIMM Applications - MRDIMM is anticipated to enhance performance in large model inference, providing significant bandwidth improvements and capacity expansions [38][39]. 4. SPD and VPD Chip Opportunities - The transition to DDR5 memory modules presents growth opportunities for SPD and VPD chips, driven by increased specifications and demand [45][46]. 5. CXL Storage Pooling - CXL technology facilitates storage pooling, enhancing computational efficiency and enabling better resource allocation for AI applications [53][54]. - The report notes significant TCO advantages in KV Cache performance when utilizing CXL in high-concurrency, long-context workloads [56][59]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage industry chain-related entities, as AI-driven storage prices are expected to rise, leading to improved profit margins for manufacturers [79].

本周五A股反弹行情中，半导体设备板块的表现备受关注，拓荆科技、中科飞测等个股盘中涨超10%，板块指数大涨3.26% 逼近前高，资金抢筹迹象十分明显。 （来源：同花顺） 这波暴涨绝非偶然，AI算力爆发、存储周期上行、国产替代提速的"三重buff"叠加，作为芯片产业的"卖铲人"，半导体设备 行业正站在业绩兑现的风口上。 回头看此前的板块波动，本质是短期情绪与长期逻辑的"短暂错位"：晶圆厂阶段性备货调整、海外制裁担忧等扰动已逐步 消退，而全球半导体复苏、国内扩产提速的核心逻辑愈发清晰，资金自然重新回流这一高确定性赛道。 01 海内外共振，设备市场升温 首先，全球半导体行业正进入复苏快车道。根据WSTS（世界半导体行业协会）数据，2025年上半年全球半导体市场规模达 到3460亿美元，同比增长18.9%，全年预计还要涨15.4%，直奔7280亿美元。 作为产业"先行指标"的半导体设备，更是迎来爆发式增长——SEMI预测，2025年全球设备出货金额近1000亿美元，2026年 将飙升至1381亿美元，连续三年保持增长态势，核心驱动力正是AI与HBM带来的高性能需求。 海外市场率先开启"扩产竞赛"，存储大厂资本开支猛增。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a significant rebound driven by AI computing power, an upward storage cycle, and accelerated domestic substitution, positioning the industry for substantial performance realization [7][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global semiconductor industry is entering a rapid recovery phase, with the market expected to reach $346 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and an annual growth of 15.4% to $728 billion [10]. - Semiconductor equipment is projected to see explosive growth, with global shipments expected to reach nearly $100 billion in 2025 and soar to $138.1 billion in 2026, driven primarily by AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demands [10]. - Major overseas storage manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with expected year-on-year growth exceeding 80% in 2025 [12]. Group 2: Domestic Market Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is set to reach $21.62 billion by mid-2025, accounting for 33.2% of the global market, making it the largest single market worldwide [14]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are accelerating capacity expansion, with Changxin's IPO valuation reaching $140 billion and Yangtze Memory's third-phase project registered with a capital of $20.72 billion [14]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Trends - The demand for storage is being driven by AI models, with AI servers requiring DRAM capacity eight times that of regular servers and NAND capacity three times higher, leading to a significant increase in storage needs [16]. - The storage industry is entering a "super cycle" of simultaneous volume and price increases, with AI servers, data centers, and consumer electronics driving demand while supply is constrained by a shift towards high-margin HBM and server DRAM [16]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to be driven by "technological iteration and domestic substitution," with continuous demand for new equipment arising from advancements in AI and storage technologies [22]. - Key investment areas include core equipment such as etching, lithography, and thin-film deposition, which collectively account for over 60% of the equipment value distribution [23]. - Companies like North Huachuang and Tuojing Technology are positioned as leaders in their respective fields, with significant market shares and growth potential [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to enter a golden growth period characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, alongside market share expansion, driven by AI and storage technology advancements [27]. - The current period is seen as a critical window for investors to capitalize on the long-term development of the industry, with a focus on storage expansion, advanced packaging, and HBM-related core demand scenarios [27].

（原标题：拓荆科技12月12日大宗交易成交326.09万元） 拓荆科技12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量0.95万股，成交金额326.09万元，大宗交易成交 价为343.25元。该笔交易的买方营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，卖方营业部为机构专用。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为9.53亿元，近5日增加1356.91万元，增幅为1.45%。（数据宝） 12月12日拓荆科技大宗交易一览 | | | 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，拓荆科技今日收盘价为343.25元，上涨8.62%，日换手率为3.98%，成交额 为37.67亿元，全天主力资金净流出2530.87万元，近5日该股累计上涨12.90%，近5日资金合计净流入 3.05亿元。 ...

先进封装设备板块：AI芯片技术迭代推动先进封装需求，进而拉动相关设备增长。中信建投指出， 2025年下半年2.5D/3D先进封装技术有望取得突破，带动封装设备需求放量。中微公司已在先进封装领 域全面布局，发布CCP刻蚀及TSV深硅通孔设备，将进一步放大先进封装设备的采购需求。 风险提示：本文提及的行业信息与企业动态仅作梳理，不构成任何投资建议；企业经营及市场波动存在 不确定性，请注意相关风险。 存储芯片供需缺口扩大，设备需求同步激增：瑞银预计，DRAM供应短缺将持续至2027年第一季度， DDR内存需求增长20.7%远超供应增速；NAND闪存短缺态势将延续至2026年第三季度。存储技术向3D 化演进推动设备需求升级，3D NAND堆叠层数向千层迈进使刻蚀设备用量显著上升，ALD与CVD协同 工艺成为主流，直接利好中微公司、拓荆科技等设备企业。 受积极影响的板块： 半导体材料板块：设备与材料存在强协同关系，设备产能扩张直接带动上游材料需求。中信建投2025年 12月9日研报指出，设备国产化率提升将同步加速靶材、高纯工艺系统等"卡脖子"材料的替代进程。 半导体零部件板块：设备核心零部件国产化是政策重点扶持方向，具 ...

| 交易日期 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交盒额[万元) 咸交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-12 拓削科技 | 688072 | 343.25 326.09 | 0.95 用原公司总器股份 | 机构专用 | | KO | 12月12日，拓荆科技大宗交易成交9500股，成交额326.09万元，占当日总成交额的0.09%，成交价 343.25元，较市场收盘价343.25元持平。 ...