Microsoft(US:MSFT) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-13 01:35Core Insights - A document allegedly from OpenAI reveals significant challenges regarding the company's financial health and the business model of the generative AI industry, indicating that OpenAI's operational costs may be much higher than previously thought while its revenues are significantly overstated [1][2]. Financial Discrepancies - OpenAI's operational costs, particularly for model inference on Microsoft's Azure platform, are projected to reach nearly $5 billion in the first half of 2025, which is almost three times the previously reported "cost of revenue" of $2.5 billion for the same period [2]. - The documents suggest that OpenAI's actual revenue is much lower than reported, with a minimum revenue estimate of approximately $2.273 billion for the first half of 2025, compared to the reported $4.3 billion [5]. Cost Analysis - From Q1 2024 to Q3 2025, OpenAI's inference costs on Azure are expected to exceed $12.4 billion, with $8.67 billion incurred in the first nine months of 2025 alone, indicating a significant gap between costs and revenues [3]. - The rapid increase in inference costs raises questions about the profitability of large model businesses under current technology and pricing structures [3]. Revenue Concerns - The revenue figures derived from Microsoft's 20% revenue share indicate that OpenAI's revenue for 2024 was at least $2.469 billion, contrasting sharply with media estimates of $3.7 billion to $4 billion [4]. - The CEO's claim of annual revenue exceeding $13 billion appears inconsistent with the financial data revealed in the documents, suggesting potential manipulation in revenue reporting [5]. Complex Financial Relationships - OpenAI and Microsoft's financial relationship is intricate, involving mutual revenue-sharing agreements that complicate revenue estimations [6]. - Despite the complexity, the significant disparity between costs and revenues remains unexplained, raising concerns about the sustainability of OpenAI's business model [6]. Industry Implications - If the disclosed data is accurate, it could signal a critical warning for the entire generative AI industry, suggesting that even leading companies like OpenAI may struggle to maintain sustainable business models [7]. - Projections indicate that OpenAI may not cover its inference costs until around 2033, raising concerns about the viability of other generative AI providers in the market [7].