Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-13 02:53Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities emphasizes a micro-operational quality investment strategy for the export chain in 2026, focusing on sectors benefiting from recovery and those that can navigate trade changes [1] Demand and Supply Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a weak recovery with loose monetary policy and supply chain restructuring. The U.S. shows resilience, Europe is seeking a bottom, and emerging markets are experiencing divergence [2] - The price outlook indicates a temporary halt in the weakening of the U.S. dollar index, with the difference between U.S. CPI and Chinese PPI remaining significant, suggesting strong support for the profitability of Chinese export companies [2] Market Concerns and Projections - Concerns in the market include macro data deficiencies and a renewed recession narrative. The mid-term elections in the U.S. are expected to stimulate the economy, supported by AI and re-industrialization trends [3] - In Europe, energy vulnerabilities and fiscal constraints are likely to hinder recovery, with attention on marginal changes in energy prices [3] - Emerging markets face exchange rate risks and high interest rate pressures, leading to increased divergence among countries [3] Investment Themes - Three main investment themes identified include: 1. Onshore industrial transfer (textile and apparel equipment, metallurgical equipment) 2. Resource advantage countries (engineering machinery, mining machinery, electrical equipment) 3. Cyclical recovery (transportation chain, engineering machinery) [4] Investment Opportunities in U.S. Exports - Selected companies for U.S. export opportunities include: - Star Technology (002444) - Quan Feng Holdings - Creative Technology* - Ousheng Electric (301187) - AIPCB equipment: Dazhu Laser (002008) - Diesel power: Weichai Power (000338) - Aerial work platforms: Zhejiang Dingli (603338) - Consumer discretionary: Taotao Vehicle (301345) [5] Investment Opportunities in Non-U.S. Exports - Companies for stable long-term non-U.S. exports include: - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) - XCMG Machinery (000425) - Shantui Construction Machinery (000680) - Agricultural machinery: Lvtian Machinery (605259), Zongshen Power (001696) - Smelting equipment: Zhongzhong Technology (603135) - Textile and apparel equipment: Honghua Digital Science, Jack Technology (603337) - Transportation: Yutong Bus (600066), King Long Automobile (600686), Longxin General (603766), Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913), Chunfeng Power (603129) [6]