Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that Guming (01364) is a leading player in the domestic mid-range tea beverage market, with potential for stable performance growth driven by new product categories, store expansion, and cost reduction in raw materials [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 111.59 billion, 134.19 billion, and 158.18 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.3%, and 17.9% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 24.87 billion, 26.25 billion, and 31.55 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.2%, 5.5%, and 20.2% respectively [1] - The target price for the stock is set at 27.84 HKD, with a "recommended" rating reflecting confidence in its growth potential as a leader in the fresh tea beverage industry [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - As of the end of 2023, the company ranks second in the national ready-to-drink tea market and first in the mid-range segment, having expanded to 11,179 stores through franchising [2] - The company offers a diverse range of fresh tea products priced between 10-18 yuan, successfully penetrating lower-tier markets with a strategy of "fresh and accessible" offerings [2] - Key competitive advantages include a robust supply chain that supports rapid store expansion and a strong cold chain logistics system, enabling the company to deliver fresh fruits and milk to stores within two days [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Insights - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is characterized by price differentiation, operational efficiency, and the integration of tea and coffee products [3] - The market size for ready-to-drink tea is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan by 2035, driven by expanding consumer demographics and increasing frequency of consumption [3] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with weaker brands exiting the market, creating structural expansion opportunities for leading brands like Guming [3] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The coffee business is expected to become a new growth engine, with over 8,000 stores covered by mid-2025 and significant potential in lower-tier cities [4] - Store expansion is anticipated to continue, with many domestic provinces and overseas markets still underdeveloped, allowing for replicable success based on supply chain advantages [4] - There is considerable room for cost reduction in key agricultural raw materials, which will enhance profit margins as scale effects and supply chain efficiencies improve [4]
华创证券：首予古茗“推荐”评级 目标价27.84港元