Micron Technology(US:MU) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-13 06:18Core Insights - The capital expenditure in the memory industry is expected to remain conservative in 2026, despite rising average selling prices (ASP) and increased profitability for suppliers [1] - The focus of investment is shifting from capacity expansion to process technology upgrades and high-value products [1][4] DRAM Sector - Capital expenditure for the DRAM industry is projected to reach $53.7 billion in 2025 and further grow to $61.3 billion in 2026, representing a 14% year-on-year increase [1] - Micron is anticipated to be the most aggressive player, with a projected capital expenditure of $13.5 billion in 2026, a 23% increase, focusing on 1 gamma process penetration and TSV equipment [2] - SK hynix is expected to invest $20.5 billion, a 17% increase, to expand HBM4 capacity [2] - Samsung plans to invest $20 billion, an 11% increase, for HBM 1C process penetration and slight increases in P4L wafer capacity [2] - Limited cleanroom space availability restricts capacity expansion for most DRAM suppliers, with only Samsung and SK hynix having slight opportunities for expansion [2] NAND Flash Sector - Kioxia/SanDisk is identified as the most proactive in expanding capacity, with a projected investment of $4.5 billion in 2026, a 41% increase, to accelerate BiCS8 production and invest in BiCS9 development [3] - Micron aims for a slight increase in NAND Flash capacity with a focus on G9 processes and Enterprise SSD business, expecting a 63% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure [3] - Samsung and SK Hynix/Solidigm are expected to reduce or limit NAND Flash capital expenditure, prioritizing investments in HBM and DRAM [3] - The surge in NAND Flash demand is driven by the rapid increase in storage capacity needs due to AI and a shortage of HDDs, leading cloud service providers to shift orders [3] Market Outlook - The memory industry has experienced multiple cycles, leading to a conservative approach in capital expenditure and expansion strategies [4] - The focus on process upgrades and hybrid-bonding implementation rather than capacity expansion will result in limited supply growth, with NAND Flash market shortages expected to persist throughout 2026 [4]