Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility, with spot gold prices dropping to $4080.87 per ounce, marking a daily decline of over 6%, the largest since August 2020. This has led to mixed market sentiments, with Standard Chartered attributing the volatility to investors moving away from safe assets, while JPMorgan remains bullish, predicting an average gold price of $5055 per ounce by the end of 2026, and Goldman Sachs raising its forecast to $4900 for the same period [1]. Company Performance - 万国黄金 reported a revenue of 1.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, and a net profit of 600 million yuan, a staggering increase of 136% year-on-year. The company is actively expanding its gold mining operations and successfully entered the Hong Kong Stock Connect in April 2025, increasing stock liquidity by over three times [1]. Resource Security - The company has established a robust resource matrix consisting of domestic and overseas mining assets, which serves as a core barrier against short-term gold price fluctuations. The gold mine in the Solomon Islands, known as the Jinling Gold Mine, is a key growth engine, with gold resources increasing by 121.2% to 227 tons as of July 2024 [2]. Cash Flow Stability - The Xinjian Mine in Jiangxi serves as a cash flow stabilizer, contributing 600 to 800 million yuan in annual revenue. The mine's diversified income structure, including copper and zinc, helps mitigate performance risks during gold price fluctuations. Despite a temporary production halt in the first half of 2025, the mine is expected to resume stable profitability in the latter half of the year [3]. Strategic Partnerships - The strategic investment by Zijin Mining in September 2024 marked a significant turning point for 万国黄金. Zijin acquired 15.28% of the company for approximately 1.249 billion yuan, with half of the funds allocated for exploration and development of the Jinling Gold Mine. This partnership not only provides capital but also enhances technology, management, and industry resources [4]. Cost Optimization - The introduction of Zijin's mining technology has led to a 16.1% reduction in sales costs, from 444 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 372 million yuan in the same period of 2025. This cost optimization is expected to improve profitability during gold price downturns [4]. Production Capacity Expansion - The expansion of the Jinling Gold Mine is accelerating, with feasibility studies already initiated under Zijin's involvement. Long-term production potential is projected to reach 8-10 tons per year, with the mine's gold revenue share increasing to 65% by 2024 [5]. Market Positioning - The global gold market's long-term trends remain intact despite short-term price corrections. Central bank gold purchases are expected to exceed 1200 tons in 2025, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months. The high-purity gold produced by Jinling Gold Mine is well-positioned to meet this demand [7]. Investment Demand - The demand for gold from private investors is also on the rise, with global gold ETF holdings increasing and high-end investment gold bar sales growing during the National Day holiday in China. The company's product structure aligns well with these market changes, providing a buffer against price volatility [7]. Valuation Perspective - The market is shifting its focus from merely "gold price elasticity" to "resource reserves and growth certainty." 万国黄金 stands out as one of the few growth-oriented mining companies in Hong Kong with both overseas high-grade gold mines and strong backing from industry leaders [8]. Growth Resilience - Despite potential risks, the company's growth logic remains robust, supported by a combination of resource depth, cost control, and collaborative synergies. The recent gold price correction has highlighted the fundamental value of the company, which is backed by 227 tons of gold resources and enhanced efficiency from Zijin Mining [9][10].
金价回调中的“抗周期”样本：万国黄金的增长底气从何而来？