“地球上最畅销的药物”？ 花旗：医保纳入改变一切，礼来口服GLP-1明年销售额将比市场预测高两倍

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised the target price for Eli Lilly to $1500, driven by the anticipated rapid market penetration of its oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron, following Medicare's expanded coverage for obesity treatment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The change in Medicare's stance to include obesity treatment is seen as a milestone for Orforglipron, potentially leading commercial and private insurers to follow suit, thus opening a significant market opportunity for GLP-1 drugs [2]. - The cost-effectiveness of GLP-1 drugs compared to lifestyle interventions, as highlighted in the ICER report, suggests improved access prospects for these medications [2]. Group 2: Sales Projections - Citigroup has increased its sales forecast for Orforglipron from $500 million to $1.8 billion for 2026, contrasting sharply with the market consensus of approximately $470 million [1]. - Long-term peak sales projections for Orforglipron are estimated to exceed $40 billion [1]. Group 3: Initial Market Launch - The initial market launch of Orforglipron is expected to benefit from a combination of increased patient access due to expanded insurance coverage and lower pricing, which will enhance patient adherence and drive faster sales growth compared to previous GLP-1 drugs [3]. - Citigroup has raised its 2030 sales forecast for Orforglipron from $11.2 billion to $18.2 billion, while the market consensus stands at $12.1 billion [3]. Group 4: Additional Product Benefits - Eli Lilly's injectable products, Zepbound and Mounjaro, are also expected to benefit from the expanded market access, with 2030 sales forecasts adjusted to $26.2 billion and $38.1 billion, respectively [5]. Group 5: Expert Endorsements - Key opinion leaders (KOLs) have shifted their focus from whether Orforglipron can be commercialized to the scale of its commercialization, with positive feedback reinforcing its potential [7]. - Experts from prestigious institutions have praised Orforglipron's efficacy and safety profile, suggesting it could become one of the best-selling drugs globally [8].