科技博主曝光OpenAI烧钱真相：2033年才能勉强覆盖推理成本，甚至“永远”亏损

Core Insights - OpenAI's operational costs may be significantly higher than previously estimated, with Microsoft benefiting greatly from their revenue-sharing agreement [1][3] - The reported inference costs on Microsoft's Azure platform suggest a substantial financial discrepancy between OpenAI's public financial reports and actual operational costs [4][7] Financial Discrepancies - OpenAI reportedly spent nearly $5 billion on inference in the first half of 2025, while its cash burn was reported at $2.5 billion and revenue at $4.3 billion during the same period [4][7] - Over the past seven quarters, OpenAI's inference spending on Azure exceeded $12.4 billion, while the lowest revenue estimate was only $6.8 billion, indicating a significant gap [7] Revenue Sharing and Estimates - Microsoft is estimated to receive 20% of OpenAI's revenue, along with additional shares from Azure and Bing business revenues, complicating the financial relationship [4][6] - If the revenue-sharing figures are multiplied by five, it provides a rough estimate of OpenAI's group revenue, although this method likely underestimates the actual figures due to the reciprocal nature of the partnership [4] Long-term Viability - Current data suggests that OpenAI's minimum revenue may not cover its inference costs until 2033, even without considering revenue sharing with Microsoft [7] - The analysis raises questions about the sustainability of OpenAI's business model, as either operational costs must decrease significantly, or customer charges must increase substantially, neither of which has been observed [7]