CATL(SZ:300750) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-13 16:37Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is driven not only by domestic funds but also by significant cross-market interactions, particularly influenced by the A50 index futures and the Hang Seng Index, alongside global macroeconomic expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 13, A-share indices closed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, marking a ten-year high; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52 points; and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.55% to 3201.75 points [1]. - Over 3900 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1]. Group 2: Cross-Market Effects - The A50 index futures showed a strong upward trend, particularly with significant contributions from major stocks like CATL, which surged 7.51%, driving the ChiNext and Shenzhen indices higher [1]. - The Hang Seng Index also turned positive in sync with the A-share market's late rally, suggesting a short-term linkage between domestic and foreign capital through derivative markets [1][2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 59.4%, reflecting increasing market expectations for monetary easing [2]. - A potential rate cut could enhance dollar liquidity and increase the attractiveness of global risk assets, leading to greater foreign investment in Chinese equities [2]. Group 4: Domestic Policy Signals - Domestic authorities have been signaling a commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence, with a focus on appropriate liquidity management [4]. - This suggests that the lower boundary of the A-share market has shifted from 3980 points to around 4000 points, providing a stronger short-term support level [5]. Group 5: Short-term and Mid-term Trends - Short-term technical indicators suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index may experience a narrow range of fluctuations or slight pullbacks, maintaining a consolidation pattern above 4000 points [6]. - In the mid-term, if the Fed's rate cut occurs alongside continued domestic easing policies, A-shares are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations and gradually increase, particularly benefiting sectors aligned with the A-share market [7]. Group 6: Conclusion - The recent high in A-shares reflects both internal fund dynamics and external market resonance, particularly driven by the A50 index futures, with supportive factors from Fed rate cut expectations and domestic stabilization policies [8].