Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-15 03:58Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a "V-shaped" reversal on November 14, 2025, with major indices initially dropping over 1% before recovering in the afternoon, reflecting a complex interplay of factors including cooling interest rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones managed to maintain slight weekly gains of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a cumulative decline of 0.5% for the week [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed structural differentiation, with high-valuation tech stocks like Apple and Google facing pressure due to the news that the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve fell below 50% [2] - Afternoon trading saw a shift towards more "certain" tech sub-sectors, particularly AI chip stocks, with Micron Technology rising 4.2% following a target price upgrade from Morgan Stanley [2] - Institutional investors demonstrated clear "reallocation actions," with a net inflow of $1.2 billion into tech ETFs (XLK) in the afternoon, while defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities saw outflows [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The core issue driving market volatility is the "repricing" of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 67% to below 50% [2][4] - Key Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation, indicating that without compelling evidence of a significant decline in inflation or a cooling labor market, a rate cut is unlikely [2] AI Sector Focus - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings report on November 19 is viewed as a critical test for the AI sector, with expectations that strong performance could bolster market confidence in AI growth [5] - Major investment firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain "overweight" ratings on Nvidia, citing its dominant market share in AI chips (over 80%) and robust demand for computing power [5] Commodity Market Dynamics - The global commodities market displayed contrasting trends, with gold prices experiencing significant volatility, dropping nearly 4% before closing down 2.37% due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [6] - Conversely, oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude rising 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, supported by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [7] Future Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to remain in a "range-bound" state due to ongoing "policy uncertainty" and the need to validate industry resilience [8] - Key upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting, Nvidia's earnings report, and delayed U.S. economic data releases, will significantly influence market sentiment [8]