ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-15 13:43Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions in the US-China supply chain conflict, highlighting China's new "certification terminal user" mechanism that simplifies rare earth exports for civilian use while restricting military access for companies like Lockheed Martin [1][6]. Group 1: US Strategy - The US strategy focuses on high-tech restrictions, particularly targeting semiconductor and AI technologies, to hinder China's military modernization [3][6]. - The US aims to relocate production lines to allied countries, but faces significant cost disadvantages compared to China's manufacturing capabilities [7][9]. Group 2: China's Response - China holds a dominant position in the supply of critical materials, controlling 90% of gallium and germanium production and 99% of rare earth processing, which it uses to counter US military capabilities [6][11]. - The Chinese military industry is experiencing growth despite US restrictions, as the focus on reliability in military chip technology allows for continued development [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Pitfalls for the US - The US faces rising costs in military production due to the need to relocate supply chains and the high costs of domestic labor and materials [7][9]. - The US's reliance on allies is weakening, as countries like Germany and Japan are hesitant to sacrifice their economic interests for US policies [9][11]. - The US's attempts to decouple from China may lead to self-inflicted damage, resulting in a decline in its military industrial base and loss of global dominance [11].