Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-16 01:23Group 1 - Recent concerns have emerged regarding the sustainability and pace of AI spending, particularly with increased credit financing and unclear investment returns [1] - Confidence in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in December and dovish policies through 2026 has weakened due to conflicting statements from multiple Fed officials [1] - Economic activity faces challenges, with deteriorating conditions for low-income consumers and weak employment trends raising concerns about a K-shaped recovery and the outlook for 2026 [1] Group 2 - Wilson predicted that if META's stock drops another 10% and Oracle's credit default swaps continue to widen, the market would need to reassess commitments to AI capital spending [2] - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is expected to provide real-time insights into AI investment prospects, but current market sentiment and positioning have changed significantly in the past two weeks [2] - Power supply issues in Western countries are increasingly being recognized as a potential constraint on the AI race, with the electricity bottleneck expected to become a more significant challenge for AI development next year [2] Group 3 - Historical comparisons of the current tech cycle with past cycles have notable limitations, with current AI prosperity resembling the tech boom of 1997-1998 rather than the bubble phase of 1999-2000, suggesting further growth potential for AI investments [3] - Concerns about excessive leverage are raised as 29% of this year's dollar credit supply is related to AI, prompting market skepticism [3] - The debate over broader economic conditions continues, with the reopening of the government and the end of quantitative tightening complicating market visibility in the coming weeks [3]