Nvidia(US:NVDA) Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-11-16 02:24Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has ended its longest shutdown, but the interruption in data collection may lead to permanent biases in key economic indicators, particularly October's employment and inflation data, causing caution among Federal Reserve officials as they prepare for the December policy meeting [1][3]. Economic Data and Indicators - Federal agencies are urgently processing backlogged economic data following the government shutdown [1]. - The NFIB's November Small Business Optimism Index is at 98.2, slightly below the expected 98.5 [3]. - The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be released between early to mid-December, with predictions of a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Haver Analytics forecasts that initial jobless claims will decrease from 228,800 to 227,500 for the week ending November 8 [3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed that the fight against inflation is far from over, leading to a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in December from 66% to 41% [4][5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that it is too early to determine the appropriateness of a December rate cut due to persistent inflation [5]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market experienced a reversal after a previous surge, with AI-related stocks leading the decline in the tech sector [1][6]. - The "Magnificent-7" tech stocks saw four of their shares decline, with Palantir Technologies underperforming despite exceeding earnings expectations [6]. - The short interest in North American semiconductor stocks has reached its highest level of 0.285% this year, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment among institutional investors [6]. Sector Performance - The market has shown signs of rotation, with energy, materials, and healthcare sectors leading the gains, while consumer discretionary stocks have lagged [6][7]. - The S&P 500 index is approaching a potential support level at the 50-day moving average, indicating a possible foundation for a market rebound [7][8]. - The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for market sentiment, with potential implications for AI-related trading [8].