Orient Securities(SH:600958) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-17 02:28Core Viewpoint - The ongoing de-dollarization is expected to drive a mid-term increase in gold prices, with the internationalization of the RMB leveraging gold to expand its influence [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is anticipated to enhance its pricing influence in non-USD currency markets [1] - Gold constitutes nearly 9% of China's central bank foreign reserves, which is still below that of major global economies, indicating significant room for growth [1] - Despite a slight slowdown in the pace of central bank gold purchases due to high gold prices, there has been a continuous increase for 12 months, highlighting the importance of raising gold's proportion in reserves [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Short-term gold prices may experience fluctuations due to weakened expectations of interest rate cuts and a strengthening dollar [1] - In the mid-term, the total US national debt is projected to exceed $40 trillion, with overseas inflation likely to rise, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices to surpass $4,500 per ounce and potentially reach $5,000 per ounce [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]