摩根大通解读宁德时代：储能大单、H股解禁与纳入恒科指数

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the cautious stance of JPMorgan regarding CATL's recent developments, particularly the significance of a large energy storage order and the upcoming unlocking of H-share IPO shares [1][2][4] - CATL has received a 200GWh energy storage battery order from Haibosichuang, but JPMorgan warns investors to interpret the actual binding nature of this order with caution, as similar strategic agreements historically lack strict enforceability [2][3] - The market's expectations for CATL's production capacity in 2026 have risen significantly, with estimates ranging from 1.0-1.1TWh to as high as 1.6TWh, which JPMorgan considers overly optimistic [3] Group 2 - Nearly 50% of H-share IPO lock-up shares, approximately 77.5 million shares, will be unlocked on November 20, creating potential selling pressure due to the current high trading price [1][4] - The H-shares of CATL are currently trading at a 23% premium over A-shares, a rare occurrence for dual-listed stocks, and the high short-selling ratio (95% utilization of the borrowing pool) adds to the uncertainty in stock price movements [1][5][7] - JPMorgan maintains a "neutral" rating on CATL's H-shares, lowering the target price from 600 HKD to 575 HKD, anticipating that the high premium of H-shares over A-shares will narrow post-lockup [7]