美股面临“关键防线”，考验多头决心，若跌破则确认下行趋势至“明年初”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is at a critical technical crossroads, with bullish sentiment facing significant challenges as key support levels are under pressure [1][2]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index - The S&P 500 index is testing three critical support levels, with the first at approximately 6700 points, which includes the 50-day moving average and a trend line since May [2]. - If the 6700 level is breached, the market will test the second support at the recent low of 6631 points, followed by the third support at 6525 points [2]. - Analysts suggest that a breach of all three support levels would confirm a bearish trend reversal, with a potential bottom around 6150 points before early 2026 [2]. Group 2: Russell 2000 Index - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, exhibits the most concerning technical pattern among U.S. benchmarks, having fallen below key support levels [4]. - The index closed below the 2380-2390 point support range, failing to maintain bullish trend support and the 50-day moving average [4]. - Continued trading below these levels could confirm a bearish trend reversal, opening the door for a decline to mid-term support at 2214-2235 points [4]. Group 3: AI Sector - AI stocks, which have led the market this year, are under pressure but have not yet confirmed a bearish trend reversal as they remain above critical support at 79.88-80.00 points [5]. - A breach of this support could lead to further weakness, with potential declines to the 73.90 point gap and mid-term support around 70 points [5]. - If the index breaks down this quarter, the 70-73.90 range may serve as a bottom before early 2026 [5]. Group 4: Market Rotation - There are signs of market rotation as funds shift towards the healthcare sector, which has seen a rise to a target index of 1778 points [7]. - Analysts advise against chasing prices at current levels and recommend waiting for consolidation to buy on dips [7]. - The materials sector has also attracted some rotation funds but faces resistance in the 555-563 point range; failure to break this could lead to further declines towards mid-term support at 511-518 points [7].