“已经不投老登了”

Core Viewpoint - The traditional consumer sectors, referred to as "old industries," are losing their appeal for investment, as evidenced by declining valuations and performance metrics in sectors like liquor, dining, and retail [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Old Industries Overview - "Old industries" include traditional sectors such as clothing, dining, home appliances, regional supermarkets, and low-value manufacturing, which were once considered stable investments due to demographic dividends and consumption upgrades [1][4]. - These sectors accounted for a significant portion of RMB fund allocations between 2016 and 2021, often viewed as "cash cows" for investment [4][8]. Market Performance - The liquor sector, a representative of high-end consumption, has seen a significant decline, with the total market capitalization of 20 major liquor companies dropping by over 500 billion RMB from previous highs [4][5]. - The white liquor index has experienced a 51% retracement since its peak in February 2021, indicating a severe market correction [5][6]. Financial Metrics - In 2025, the first three quarters showed a 5.83% decline in total revenue and a 6.76% drop in net profit for the liquor sector, with the third quarter witnessing an alarming 18.42% revenue drop [7][8]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor sector has fallen to approximately 18.7, significantly below the long-term average of 27.6 [5][6]. Shift in Investment Focus - Investment capital is shifting away from "old industries" towards "new productive forces," such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, reflecting a broader trend in venture capital [9][10]. - Despite a 32% decline in overall VC financing in 2024, significant funding is still directed towards high-potential sectors, indicating a concentration of capital in fewer, more promising areas [9][10]. Government and Institutional Support - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of "new productive forces" in its economic policies, encouraging investment in strategic emerging industries [10][11]. - Various funds, including national AI and technology innovation funds, are being established to support these new sectors, further driving the shift in investment focus [11][12]. Evolution of Traditional Industries - Traditional industries are not disappearing; rather, they are evolving. Companies that embrace digital transformation and new technologies are beginning to attract investment again [14][15]. - Examples include traditional clothing brands that have successfully integrated digital supply chains and advanced manufacturing techniques to enhance efficiency and profitability [15][16]. Conclusion - The phrase "no longer investing in old industries" reflects a strategic pivot rather than a complete abandonment of traditional sectors, as new players and innovative approaches emerge within these markets [18][19].