振石股份IPO：风电光环下的业绩暗流与产业链隐忧

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zhenstone New Materials Co., Ltd. is facing significant challenges as it approaches its IPO review, with a stark contrast between its leading market position in wind power fiberglass fabric and its declining financial performance, including a continuous drop in revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's operating revenue decreased from 5.267 billion to 4.439 billion, a decline of 15.7%, while net profit fell from 774 million to 608 million, with a 23% year-on-year drop in 2024 [2] - The company attributed its performance decline to "malicious price competition in the wind power pultrusion market" and "the decrease in raw material prices leading to a larger revenue drop than cost drop," highlighting its over-reliance on the clean energy materials sector, which consistently accounts for over 80% of its revenue [2] - There is a significant cash flow and profit divergence, with net cash flow from operating activities showing a cumulative outflow of 514 million over three years, despite a net profit of 790 million in 2023 [2] Supply Chain Risks - The company has a high dependency on a single supplier, with the top five suppliers accounting for over 83% of purchases, and the largest supplier, China Jushi, consistently representing over 60% of procurement [3] - Related party transactions raise concerns about pricing fairness, as the company has a significant portion of its costs tied to related parties, with 70.49% to 69.22% of operating costs attributed to related party purchases from 2022 to 2024 [3] Governance and Control - The controlling shareholders, Zhang Yuqiang and Zhang Jiankang, hold 96.51% of the company's shares, raising concerns about governance and potential risks of improper control [4] - The company distributed 1.14 billion in dividends during a cash flow crunch, amounting to 72.89% of its net profit over two years, which has led to skepticism regarding the necessity of its fundraising efforts [4] Financial Structure - The company's debt levels are concerning, with a debt-to-asset ratio between 67% and 72% from 2022 to 2024, significantly higher than the industry average, and short-term debt exceeding 4 billion [4] - As of June 2025, the company's cash-to-short-term debt ratio was only 0.63%, indicating substantial short-term repayment pressure [4] Strategic Response - The company plans to raise 3.981 billion for capacity expansion, with 3.35 billion allocated to increase fiberglass product capacity by 150,000 tons and composite material capacity by 80,000 tons, despite a projected industry overcapacity [5] - International expansion efforts face geopolitical challenges, with a planned investment of 359 million in Spain, while overseas revenue has declined from 1.353 billion in 2022 to 1.085 billion in 2024 [5] Industry Context - The company has leveraged its supply chain advantages to become a leader in wind power materials but faces independence risks due to related party transactions and is struggling with performance amid industry overcapacity [6] - As the wind power industry shifts from rapid expansion to a focus on efficiency, the company must demonstrate its ability to navigate industry cycles and sustain long-term growth [6]