SCS(SH:601555) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-18 02:41Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, leading to improved performance for coal companies starting from Q3 2025, with stable coal prices benefiting leading companies [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guanghui Energy (600256) due to its production growth from the "Xinjiang coal transportation" logic and performance elasticity from rising thermal coal prices [1] - Other companies recommended for attention include Haohua Energy (601101), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) [1] Group 2 - Since mid-2023, the coal supply and demand have entered a weak equilibrium state due to slowing economic growth, with normal coal prices fluctuating between 670-870 RMB/ton, and a reasonable expectation around 770 RMB/ton [1] - Xinjiang coal has become a significant elastic supply region, with large-scale open-pit coal mines providing important supply flexibility [1] - When coal prices fall below 700 RMB/ton, coal mines face losses and may exit production, while prices above 800 RMB/ton lead to significant production releases due to improved profitability [1] Group 3 - The report indicates that Indonesian coal production has significant elasticity, as it consists of open-pit mines, and low-calorific coal is prioritized for elimination during market downturns, making it an important supplementary source for China's coal supply [2] - It is projected that China's coal imports will decrease by 5-6 million tons in 2025, with a similar decline expected in Indonesia's total export volume [2] - The most significant impact on coal prices from 2024 to 2025 will come from temporary railway freight discounts, particularly in Xinjiang, where a 20-30% discount will reduce transportation costs by 100-150 RMB/ton, ultimately affecting coastal coal price fluctuations [2]