央行购金狂潮托底！高盛重申黄金4900美元目标价

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have raised questions about whether the strong upward trend seen this year is nearing its end, with prices dropping from a peak of approximately $4,400 per ounce to below $4,000, and experiencing a range between $3,900 and $4,205 [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows strong GDP growth, but rising unemployment and inflation present challenges for the Federal Reserve [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% in July to 4.3% in August, with significant layoffs announced, totaling 1.1 million in 2024, a 44% increase from the previous year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% to 3% in September, indicating inflationary pressures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased from 4.77% in January to 4.14%, while the dollar index fell from 109 to 99.5, creating favorable conditions for gold [4] - Historically, gold prices tend to move inversely to yields and the dollar, making gold more attractive as a safe-haven asset when yields decline and the dollar weakens [4] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Forecast - Goldman Sachs has reassessed its gold price outlook for 2026, predicting that the recent pullback in gold prices will be short-lived due to ongoing central bank purchases [6] - The bank reported that central banks bought 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, and expects this trend to continue [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will average monthly purchases of 80 tons of gold from Q4 2025 to 2026, with a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][7]