招银国际：维持零跑汽车“买入”评级 Q4盈利或将更具韧性

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoyin International reports that Leap Motor (09863) maintains robust profitability in its automotive business for Q3, with a revenue increase of 37% quarter-on-quarter to 19.5 billion RMB, exceeding previous forecasts by 5% due to higher-than-expected average selling prices [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 14.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The combined expense ratio for sales management and R&D decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 14.3%, aligning with forecasts [1] - Net profit remained stable at 150 million RMB, primarily influenced by non-automotive business factors [1] Future Outlook - Q4 profitability is expected to be more resilient, with a sales forecast increase of 20,000 units to 620,000 units for 2025, implying a 29% increase in Q4 sales volume to 224,000 units [1] - After considering potential carbon credit income of 500 million RMB, Q4 net profit is anticipated to increase 4.5 times quarter-on-quarter to 677 million RMB [1] - Strong sales momentum is projected to continue into 2026, with over 25,000 new orders from Europe in October and November 2025 [1] Sales Targets - Leap Motor's overseas sales target of 100,000 to 150,000 units for 2026 is deemed achievable [1] - Total sales are expected to grow by 52% year-on-year to 940,000 units in 2026, driven by the launch of the Lafa5 and four new models (two D series and two A series) [1] - The newly unveiled D19 model has received significantly higher pre-order volumes than management expectations, enhancing confidence in the A series models for the upcoming year [1]