Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-18 09:17Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities is optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] Group 1: Industrial Metals - Several major mines have experienced unexpected disruptions, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine output for next year [1] - Supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum are also frequent due to overseas electricity shortages, while traditional demand is expected to benefit from a global rate-cutting cycle [1] - Although the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing, its proportion continues to rise, and the demand from AI is expected to provide additional growth [1] - Copper and aluminum prices are anticipated to continue rising due to the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors [1] - Despite stock prices being at new highs, this is primarily due to rising commodity prices and the realization of company growth potential, with valuations remaining at a neutral to low level [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The outlook for energy metals is improving as expectations for energy storage demand continue to rise, significantly improving the supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate next year [1] - Following the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, cobalt prices have surged, and with supply constraints expected next year, the market is likely to remain tight with bullish price expectations [1] Group 3: Gold Market - The trend of reshaping the dollar credit system is becoming evident against the backdrop of overseas monetary expansion and weakening fiscal discipline, maintaining the long-term bullish logic for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold stocks has significantly lagged behind the continuously rising gold prices, with current stock valuations at historical lows, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment [1]