英伟达重磅财报公布前夕，华尔街进入“避险模式”

Market Overview - The recent sell-off in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, is attributed to concerns over high valuations of AI-related stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [2][3] - Major U.S. indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, experienced declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 139 trading days [1] AI Sector Performance - Nvidia's upcoming Q3 earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the AI sector and the broader U.S. stock market, with expectations for strong performance but concerns over high valuations [1][5] - Institutional investors have recently reduced or liquidated positions in Nvidia and other large tech stocks, indicating a tactical adjustment rather than a bearish outlook on the AI sector as a whole [4][5] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and delayed interest rate cuts have contributed to market uncertainty, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping to 48.6% [2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to alleviate some liquidity concerns, although the market remains sensitive to high valuations and potential economic downturns [3][7] Investment Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI spending and the return on investment for companies heavily investing in AI infrastructure [6][7] - Despite the current market volatility, the long-term outlook for the tech sector remains optimistic, with projected earnings growth of 23.5% and 22.8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7][8] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AI sector and its impact on the stock market will depend on the actual commercialization of technology and the macroeconomic environment [8][9] - Investors are advised to monitor Nvidia's earnings and guidance closely, as these will significantly influence market sentiment and the performance of AI-related stocks [5][6]