AI的“审判日”来了？英伟达财报将决定华尔街万亿赌注“生死”

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia will be a critical moment for Wall Street's significant bets on artificial intelligence, as investors seek evidence to support or refute concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector [2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly anxious about the AI hype potentially detaching from fundamentals, with some business leaders highlighting "circular trading" among partners that could exacerbate bubble risks [2] - Major investors, including Peter Thiel's hedge fund, have sold all their Nvidia shares, raising concerns about a broader market sell-off [2] - Nvidia's stock has dropped 7.9% in November, following a 1200% increase over the past three years, while the broader market has declined by 2.5% in the same period [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Nvidia is expected to report a revenue increase of over 56% year-on-year for the August to October quarter, reaching $54.92 billion, although this growth is significantly lower than previous quarters [3] - The company has consistently exceeded earnings expectations for the past 12 quarters, but the magnitude of these beats has been narrowing [3] - Nvidia's CEO has stated that the order volume for advanced chips is projected to reach $500 billion by 2026 [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Profitability Challenges - Nvidia is facing challenges in resolving chip supply shortages, despite TSMC increasing advanced packaging capacity [4] - The introduction of more complex and larger systems, which bundle various components, is putting pressure on profit margins [4] - Nvidia's adjusted gross margin is expected to contract by nearly 2 percentage points year-on-year to 73.6%, while net profit may grow by 53% to $29.54 billion [4] Group 4: Strategic Investments - Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia's significant investments, including a $100 billion stake in OpenAI and a $5 billion holding in Intel, to assess their impact on the company's balance sheet [5] - As of July 27, Nvidia held $11.64 billion in cash and cash equivalents [5]