Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-11-18 14:55Core Viewpoint - The Future Fund of Australia highlights increasing risks of "more frequent and severe new shocks" to the global economy, prompting a shift in asset allocation towards gold, actively managed stocks, and hedge funds [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The Future Fund has raised its allocation to gold and other commodities to provide asymmetric protection against supply-driven inflation and stagflation [3][4]. - The fund aims for long-term returns exceeding 4% to 5% above the consumer price index (CPI) while managing risk at an acceptable level [3]. - The report indicates a fundamental shift in the global investment landscape, characterized by increased uncertainty, rising inflation pressures, and heightened market volatility [3]. Group 2: Gold Demand and Price Projections - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, reaching 3,717 tons, with a value increase of 41% to $384 billion [1]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by private investors diversifying their portfolios with gold [1][6]. - Central banks are expected to continue significant gold purchases, with a projected average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Trends - A survey indicates that 64% of central banks plan to increase foreign exchange reserves, with 47% explicitly stating intentions to increase gold holdings as a strategic tool against geopolitical and financial risks [5]. - In the first three quarters of the year, global central bank gold demand reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [5]. Group 4: Gold ETFs and Market Performance - Global physically-backed gold ETFs experienced net inflows for five consecutive months, with October's inflow reaching $8.2 billion, indicating strong annual performance [6]. - As of the end of October, total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs grew by 6% to $503 billion, with holdings increasing by 1% to 3,893 tons [6]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America projecting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [6].