英伟达大考来袭，华尔街进入避险模式

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in technology stocks, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, S&P 500 down 0.92%, and Nasdaq down 0.84% as of November 17 [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both fallen below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 139 trading days [2] - The "Big Seven" tech stocks have dropped nearly 4.5% this month, with only Alphabet showing gains [2] AI Sector Insights - Nvidia's upcoming Q3 earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the AI sector and the broader U.S. stock market [2][7] - Historically, Nvidia's earnings have exceeded market expectations, but there are concerns about high valuations and investor caution [2][7] - Recent institutional selling of Nvidia shares may reflect tactical adjustments rather than a bearish outlook on the AI sector [7][8] Economic Factors - Concerns over high valuations of AI stocks and tightening liquidity are contributing to the recent weakness in the U.S. stock market [4] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 48.6% due to hawkish comments from Fed officials [4] - The recent government shutdown and liquidity risks have exacerbated market volatility, with cash balances in the Treasury increasing significantly [4][5] Institutional Behavior - Major hedge funds have reduced their positions in Nvidia, indicating a cautious approach amid high valuations and concentrated holdings [7] - The market is rewarding companies with accelerating growth driven by AI demand, while showing skepticism towards those with unclear business channels [10] Future Outlook - The sustainability of AI spending and profitability remains a key focus for investors, with expectations for significant earnings growth in 2025 and 2026 [11] - The market's current high concentration in tech giants suggests strong profitability, but any underperformance could lead to widespread corrections [11][12] - The long-term success of the AI sector will depend on the actual commercialization of technology and macroeconomic conditions [11][12]