Lilly(US:LLY) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-19 00:42Core Insights - Eli Lilly is on track to become the first trillion-dollar pharmaceutical company, driven by its dominant position in the lucrative weight loss drug market [1] - The company’s weight loss drug Zepbound has surpassed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in prescription share, despite Zepbound only launching at the end of 2023 [1] - Eli Lilly's market capitalization has surged from over $700 billion to approximately $970 billion since March 2024, while Novo Nordisk's market cap has dropped from over $500 billion to around $200 billion [1] Market Dynamics - Eli Lilly has resolved previous supply shortages and is preparing to launch an oral version of its weight loss drug, which is expected to be easier to scale and more affordable [2] - The global expansion of Eli Lilly's drug Mounjaro has shown significant growth, with overseas revenue increasing from $728 million to $2.97 billion year-over-year by Q3 2025, with 75% of sales coming from cash-paying obesity patients [2] - The potential for GLP-1 drugs in international markets like Brazil and Europe represents a significant growth opportunity for Eli Lilly [2] Valuation and Risks - Eli Lilly's stock is currently valued at approximately 34 times forward earnings, higher than tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft, and significantly above the pharmaceutical industry average of 16 times [3] - Forecasts suggest that Eli Lilly's two leading drugs could generate annual sales exceeding $40 billion by 2026 and approach $60 billion by 2030, which may justify the high valuation [3] - The primary long-term risk for Eli Lilly lies in patent expiration, which poses a significant challenge compared to tech companies that can continuously innovate [3]