中泰证券：奢侈品复苏主线明确 中国市场需求回归

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is showing signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with Greater China emerging as a key driver for performance improvement [1][2] - Many brands have either narrowed revenue declines or achieved positive growth, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence [2][3] Industry Overview - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a clear bottoming-out and recovery trend, particularly in the Greater China market, which is crucial for boosting market confidence [2] - Despite some brands still facing slight revenue declines year-on-year, the rate of decline is decreasing, and several companies have reported their first positive growth since the pandemic [2][3] Brand Performance - LVMH: Achieved a quarterly sales rebound for the first time in 2025, with Q3 total revenue at €18.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year but showing 1% organic growth, driven by strong performance in Greater China [3] - Prada: Reported a 9% increase in net revenue to €4.07 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 8%, highlighting significant improvement in mainland China sales [3] - Hermès: Q3 revenue grew by 9.6% to €3.9 billion, with improvements noted in the Chinese market, although slightly below market expectations [4] - Kering: Revenue declined by 10% to €3.42 billion in Q3, but the decline was less severe than previous quarters, indicating a recovery trend, particularly in the North American market [4] - Burberry: Reported a 3% growth in comparable store sales in Q2 FY26, indicating a recovery trajectory in Greater China, with adjusted operating profit turning from a loss to a profit [5][6] - Moncler: Experienced a 1% revenue decline to €616 million in Q3, reflecting challenges in brand strategy and market competition [6] Investment Recommendations - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region is seeing a significant narrowing of sales declines, with some brands already showing year-on-year increases, suggesting a bottoming out of mid-to-high-end consumption [7] - The focus of the market has shifted from concerns about deep recession to validating the strength and sustainability of recovery, with the performance in China being a critical variable for future luxury goods performance [7] - Companies with strong brand power, clear strategies, and effective execution in the Chinese market are expected to better capitalize on the recovery, with recommendations to focus on LVMH, Prada, Hermès, and Burberry [7]