小米的周期对冲法：新引擎盈利，旧引擎转型

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's Q3 2025 financial results show a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and an adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 81%, marking a historical high [2][3] - The company successfully transitioned from traditional smartphone business to new growth engines, particularly in smart electric vehicles and AI, which achieved quarterly profitability for the first time [2][3] - The smartphone segment is under pressure due to rising memory costs, impacting gross margins, while the company is focusing on high-end strategies to enhance product structure and resilience [2][4] Financial Performance - Xiaomi's revenue from innovative businesses, including smart electric vehicles and AI, reached 29 billion yuan, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 25.5% and a profit of 700 million yuan in the quarter [3][4] - The smartphone business saw a shipment of 43.3 million units, generating revenue of 45.969 billion yuan, with a gross margin dropping to 11.1% due to supply chain cost pressures [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Xiaomi is implementing three core strategies to build long-term competitiveness: increasing R&D investment, advancing high-end strategies, and exploring new growth opportunities in global markets [2][3] - The company plans to enhance its R&D capabilities, with Q3 spending reaching 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, and total R&D investment expected to exceed 30 billion yuan for the year [8][9] Market Trends - The current memory price increase is driven by strong demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) from AI applications, differing from previous cycles driven by mobile and laptop demand [4] - Xiaomi's IoT business generated 27.6 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining growth for seven consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 23.9% [5][6] Operational Developments - Xiaomi has expanded its automotive sales network, with 402 stores in 119 cities in mainland China, and aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles by the end of the year [3][6] - The company has launched a new smart appliance factory in Wuhan, enhancing its production capabilities and supporting its high-end strategy [6][9] Challenges and Outlook - Despite achieving profitability in the automotive sector, challenges remain, including reduced purchase tax subsidies and increased competition expected in 2026 [9] - The smartphone segment faces ongoing pressure from rising memory costs, while the IoT business must navigate a competitive landscape and potential price wars [9]