Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-19 09:28Market Overview - The US stock market experienced significant fear and panic, with major indices continuing their downward trend, reflecting a market atmosphere filled with anxiety [1][3]. - The S&P 500 index broke through a weak support level at 6640 points, dipping to 6574 points before finding some support, indicating a potential for a sideways movement or slight rebound in the near term [5]. Nvidia's Earnings Impact - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is a focal point for the market, with concerns centered around the production capacity of the Blackwell chip, power supply limitations in data centers, and rising costs potentially affecting profit margins [7]. - Nvidia's stock price has retraced towards an important support level of $176 ahead of the earnings announcement, reflecting market caution [5][7]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - The CNN Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11, indicating extreme fear in the market, which historically has led to positive returns in the following month when entering the 10-15 range [10]. - Deutsche Bank's report reassured investors that the recent market downturn is a normal correction rather than a sign of economic deterioration, emphasizing that the fundamental conditions remain robust [10]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is facing internal disagreements regarding interest rate paths, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December, contingent on inflation data [13]. - The market correction is viewed as a revaluation rather than a response to economic decline, suggesting that the Fed's future actions could provide long-term support for the market [13]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is currently experiencing significant volatility, with some stocks facing steep declines of 60-70%, reminiscent of past market corrections in tech sectors [17]. - Despite the current challenges, the overall environment of fiscal and monetary policy remains supportive, indicating potential for recovery in the AI sector post-correction [17]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind confidence during bullish markets, focusing on identifying opportunities during extreme market emotions [18]. - The strategy of bottom-fishing in major indices is suggested as a safer approach compared to attempting to catch falling knives in individual stocks [17].