AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(SH:601288) 3 6 Ke·2025-11-19 10:49Core Viewpoint - The perception that brokerage stocks are underperforming compared to banks and insurance is a "visual error," as brokerage stocks have actually shown significant gains in recent months [3][4][6]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - From September 24, 2024, to the present, the brokerage sector has increased by over 47%, while the banking sector has risen by over 36% and the insurance sector by slightly over 33% [4]. - Since April 7, 2025, brokerages have gained 14%, outperforming banks at 9% and insurance at 5%, although Agricultural Bank has surged nearly 57% during this period [6][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector is characterized by high beta, meaning it experiences larger fluctuations compared to banks and insurance, which are more stable and provide consistent dividends [6][12]. - The "star stock effect" from individual high-performing bank stocks can skew perceptions of overall sector performance, as many smaller banks have not performed as well [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market is described as a "slow bull" rather than a full-blown bull market, with a focus on safety leading to the outperformance of banks and insurance [15][16]. - If a comprehensive bull market begins in 2026, brokerages are expected to take the lead due to increased trading volumes and business opportunities [17][18]. Group 4: Seasonal Trends - Historically, brokerages experience a "Spring Festival offensive" with an 80% probability of rising in January and February, making this a strategic time for investment [19].