明天凌晨 决定全球市场命运的财报来了

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing collective anxiety, with Nvidia being seen as a potential savior as it prepares to release its Q3 earnings report, which could significantly influence market direction in the coming weeks [1][2]. Market Sentiment - There is a pervasive sense of tension across various asset classes, including Bitcoin, tech stocks, gold, and corporate bonds, all facing selling pressure [1]. - Bitcoin has dropped 29% from its peak this year, indicating a shift to negative returns [2]. - Non-profitable U.S. tech companies have seen their stock prices decline, reflecting a loss of patience among investors, including retail investors [6]. Nvidia's Earnings Importance - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is deemed crucial, as it will reflect the real returns on the substantial AI investments made by major tech companies [1][9]. - Analysts expect Nvidia's Q3 net profit and revenue to grow by over 50% [13]. - The company's stock has risen 35% this year, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 index, which has increased by about 17% [10]. Analyst Expectations - Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nvidia's earnings, with expectations that the company will exceed revenue forecasts of approximately $55 billion, potentially reaching $63-64 billion [12][13]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue expectations for Nvidia, indicating a substantial increase in demand from cloud service providers [18]. Supply Chain and Capacity Concerns - Nvidia's growth is currently limited by supply chain capacity rather than demand, with significant AI computing needs exceeding supply [16]. - The company has a backlog of over 70,000 racks for 2026, surpassing its maximum production capacity for the year [16]. Market Risks and Investor Behavior - Despite optimism regarding Nvidia's earnings, there are growing concerns about AI investments, as evidenced by significant hedge fund sell-offs of Nvidia shares [20]. - The market is wary of potential cutbacks in commitments from major AI spenders, which could lead to unreliable revenue projections [20][21]. - Analysts are closely monitoring Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter, as expectations for revenue may be high but could also be conservative [21].