Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the water supply industry in China, with a stable development in its main water supply business and a first-mover advantage in pipeline drinking water [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company serves over 30 million people in urban water supply and approximately 12 million in pipeline drinking water as of FY2025 [1] - The revenue structure includes urban water supply (64.3%), environmental protection (13.1%), general contracting (5.7%), pipeline drinking water (5.6%), property development and investment (3.1%), and other segments (8.2%) [1] - The company has no controlling shareholder, with a diversified and balanced ownership structure, including major shareholders such as the chairman Duan Chuanliang (27.4%), Orix (27.3%), and Great Wall Life Insurance [1] Group 2: Financial Highlights - The company has passed its peak capital expenditure phase, with FY2024 capital expenditure at HKD 5.14 billion, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million [1] - The capital expenditure is expected to be capped at HKD 2 billion in FY2026, indicating a clear turning point for capital expenditure and potential for increasing free cash flow and dividends [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The water supply and sewage treatment sectors are experiencing stable growth, with municipal public facility investments showing signs of recovery due to national equipment renewal policies [2] - The projected CAGR for water supply and sewage treatment from 2025 to 2027 is 0.37% and 1.2%, respectively [2] - The company’s operational capacity as of FY2025 includes water supply (730,000 tons/day), sewage (90,000 tons/day), and raw water (189,000 tons/day), with ongoing construction capacities showing limited growth [2] Group 4: Drinking Water Segment - The company has made strategic acquisitions in the pipeline drinking water sector, which are expected to stabilize profitability despite a decline in connection and construction business [3] - Forecasted net profit for FY2026-2028 is HKD 1.25 billion, HKD 1.28 billion, and HKD 1.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 2.2%, and 2.4% respectively [3] - Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, the corresponding dividend yields are projected to be 5.3%, 5.4%, and 5.5% [3]
中国水务(00855.HK)：供水和管道直饮水龙头 自由现金流拐点已现