协鑫科技(03800.HK)：技术力量助推开拓新发展周期

Core Viewpoint - The company is well-positioned in the renewable energy sector, particularly in the silicon-based industry, with a focus on granular silicon and advanced technologies, which may lead the industry into a new commercial phase [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment due to slowing demand growth and high supply levels, emphasizing the importance of cost control and technological advancement [1] - The industry is expected to see a substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics by 2026, with a gradual return to a reasonable supply-demand ratio by 2027-2028, leading to profit concentration among leading companies with competitive advantages [1] Company Summary - The company’s granular silicon products are rapidly improving in quality, meeting the higher standards required for N-type silicon materials [1] - Production costs for granular silicon are significantly lower, with cash costs projected to drop to 24.16 RMB/kg by Q3 2025, highlighting its cost advantage [1] - The company’s granular silicon demonstrates superior performance in terms of lifespan and reduced defect rates, having achieved 100% mass production application in leading silicon wafer enterprises [1] - Under the "dual carbon" initiative, the importance of energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing, with the company’s granular silicon showing a 75% reduction in carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [1] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 14.85 billion, 19.50 billion, and 21.62 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.6%, 31.3%, and 10.8% respectively [2] - Expected net profits for the same period are -720 million, 1.87 billion, and 2.94 billion RMB, with growth rates indicating a narrowing loss, a return to profitability, and a 56.9% increase [2] - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its strong cost competitiveness and low-carbon advantages, which are expected to improve profitability as industry conditions become more favorable [2]