美股 V 反，政策宽松，财报利好！三大信号指引价值股布局窗口

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, opening down 2% but rebounding to form a V-shaped recovery before a late-day pullback due to news from Trump regarding U.S.-China trade [3][5] - The S&P 500 index ultimately fell by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.4% [3] Sector Performance - The banking sector emerged as the biggest winner, rising by 1.9%, followed by the insurance sector with a 1.6% increase [3] - In contrast, the previously favored large technology sector collectively declined by 1.1%, negatively impacting the Nasdaq [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw significant gains, indicating a shift in risk preference towards small-cap stocks, highlighting a "value stocks + small caps strong, large tech weak" market dynamic [5] Policy Signals - Jerome Powell's recent statements indicated a likely halt to the balance sheet reduction in the coming months, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment [9][11] - Powell also suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, continuing the dovish trend established in previous months [11] Consumer Health Insights - JPMorgan's earnings report revealed strong consumer spending and stable early credit delinquency rates, contradicting fears of consumer weakness [13][15] - The labor market remains robust, characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, with wage growth between 3% and 4%, supporting ongoing consumer spending [15] AI Investment Trends - JPMorgan plans to invest $1.3 trillion over the next decade in AI infrastructure, shifting focus from large tech companies to traditional firms and infrastructure companies [17] - This transition indicates a growing opportunity in the AI infrastructure space for investors [17] Market Sentiment and VIX Index - The VIX index rose by 9.4% to 20.81, providing insights for market operations; historically, a VIX level near or above 22.4 has led to subsequent pullbacks in the index [18][20] - Current VIX levels below 21 suggest a suitable entry point for cash-rich investors to gradually accumulate positions [20] Investment Strategy - The prevailing market logic is characterized by "policy easing + stable fundamentals + emotional recovery," suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation focused on value [22] - The banking sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, with recommendations to consider bank ETFs for risk diversification [24] - The consumer sector remains resilient, but caution is advised regarding inflation risks, with a preference for stable, reasonably valued stocks [25]