英伟达力挽AI泡沫论

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings report from Nvidia has temporarily alleviated concerns about a potential AI bubble, showcasing strong financial performance while also revealing some underlying risks [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ending October 26, 2025), Nvidia reported a revenue increase of 62.5% year-over-year, with net profit rising by 65% [3]. - The data center business achieved a quarterly revenue exceeding $50 billion for the first time [3]. - Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter anticipates total revenue of $65 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $61.7 billion [4]. Demand Signals - Nvidia's Blackwell series chips are in high demand, and cloud GPUs are sold out, addressing market concerns about peak AI demand [3]. - However, Nvidia's accounts receivable have been rising, reaching $33.391 billion in the third quarter, with 65% coming from four major clients [5]. - Inventory levels have also increased to $19.784 billion, with inventory turnover days rising to 117.5 days, significantly higher than the average of the past five years [6]. Customer Concentration Risks - Nvidia's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with four direct customers contributing 61% of total revenue, up from 56% in the previous quarter [6][7]. - This high customer concentration poses risks to revenue stability if these clients alter their capital expenditure plans [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia, with firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS reiterating buy ratings and optimistic revenue forecasts [8]. - Conversely, notable investors like Peter Thiel and Bridgewater Associates have significantly reduced their holdings in Nvidia, indicating caution regarding its high valuation [9].