A股大跌2%失守3900点，科技股牛市结束了吗？

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia reported better-than-expected financial results, but the capital market reacted negatively, with the stock opening up 5% and closing down over 3%, indicating significant volatility in the tech sector [3] Group 1: Market Impact - Nvidia's market capitalization of $4.4 trillion gives it substantial weight in the U.S. stock market, and its volatility has influenced the broader market, with the Nasdaq experiencing fluctuations from a 2.58% increase to a 2.15% decrease [3] - The decline in Nvidia's stock has also affected other AI and tech-related companies, including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Cambricon, which saw varying degrees of decline [3] Group 2: A-Share Market Analysis - As of November 21, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai index dropping over 2% and falling below the 3900-point mark, particularly impacting previously active sectors like lithium mining, energy storage, and semiconductors [4] Group 3: Bull Market Analysis - The recent bull market in A-shares, which began in late September 2024, can be divided into two phases, with the first phase seeing a rapid increase of nearly 1000 points in less than half a month, while the second phase, starting in early April 2025, was primarily driven by tech stocks [5] - The second phase of the bull market resulted in a rise from 3040 points to a peak of 4034 points by November, showcasing a strong performance in tech stocks that diverted funds from other sectors [5] Group 4: Indicators of Market Trends - Three key indicators are essential to monitor whether the tech bull market has ended: the formation of a synchronized decline in global tech stocks, the continuous flow of large capital, and the behavior of major shareholders and institutional investors regarding stock holdings [6][7][8] - A sustained decline in major tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla could signal a potential peak for tech stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The performance of tech stocks in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year will be crucial in determining future price movements, with the potential for continued opportunities if earnings growth outpaces valuation increases [10] - As the tech bull market shows signs of cooling, there may be a shift in capital towards undervalued blue-chip stocks, indicating a potential rotation in market dynamics [10]