流感来袭 康缘药业核心产品需求回暖

Core Insights - The flu activity in China is expected to rise this winter, primarily driven by the H3N2 subtype, alongside various other respiratory pathogens [2] - The demand for antiviral and flu treatment products, particularly for children, is increasing due to low vaccination rates and immature immune systems [2] - Kanyuan Pharmaceutical's antiviral products, such as Rendu Ning injection and Jinzhen oral solution, have seen significant sales growth, although they faced a decline earlier in the year due to weakened terminal demand [2][3] Company Performance - Kanyuan Pharmaceutical reported that its Rendu Ning injection and Jinzhen oral solution were previously billion-level sales products, but experienced a significant year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025 due to external factors [2] - The company anticipates a market demand recovery in the fourth quarter and is ramping up production to meet this demand [2] - Jinzhen oral solution has been included in several clinical guidelines, indicating its recognized efficacy in treating respiratory infections in children [3] Industry Context - The flu is a common respiratory infectious disease, with an annual global infection rate of approximately 1 billion, and children are particularly vulnerable [3] - In China, the flu infection rate among children can reach up to 50% during peak seasons [3] - The market for pediatric traditional Chinese medicine has seen Kanyuan Pharmaceutical maintain the highest market share in public grassroots medical terminals for three consecutive years [4] - Jinzhen oral solution is projected to exceed 1 billion yuan in sales across three major terminal markets in 2024, with over 60% of sales coming from public hospitals [4]