黑色星期五，怎么看？

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, influenced by Nvidia's strong earnings report and unexpected non-farm payroll data, raising concerns about an AI bubble and interest rate cuts [1][2][19] - Major indices, including the Nasdaq, saw substantial declines, with the Nasdaq dropping 4.7%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [2][19] - The market's reaction indicates a growing skepticism regarding the sustainability of AI demand and high valuations in the tech sector [6][17] Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [4][6] - The company's data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, reflecting a 66% year-over-year growth, and provided a strong fourth-quarter guidance [4][6] - Despite Nvidia's positive outlook, investor concerns about high valuations in the tech sector persist, with warnings from notable investors about the limitations of actual demand [6][17] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs in September, the strongest monthly gain since April, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [8][9][10] - The employment data has complicated the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with a 60.4% probability of maintaining rates in December and a 39.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [10][17] - The mixed signals from the labor market have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [10][17] Market Dynamics - A tightening of liquidity and high valuations have led to increased selling pressure in the market, with significant outflows from long-term funds and a shift in hedge fund positions from net buying to net selling [14][15] - The trading volume of ETFs has surged to 41% of total market volume, indicating a shift towards passive and macro-driven funds, which has exacerbated downward momentum [15] - Goldman Sachs identified nine negative factors contributing to the recent sell-off, including concerns over Nvidia's peak performance and broader market liquidity issues [14][15] AI Market Concerns - The AI sector is facing scrutiny over its long-term profitability, with concerns that rising capital expenditures may not be sustainable [17][18] - The financing model within the AI ecosystem is becoming increasingly fragile, raising fears of a potential "Ponzi scheme" scenario if demand does not materialize [18] - Despite the presence of a bubble, individual companies may still hold investment value, as fundamentals can diverge from overall market sentiment [18][19]